Hidden Vulnerability Under Global Shocks: A Dynamic Resilience Index for Import-Dependent Food Systems—Evidence from Jordan
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.65150/EP-jefrr/V2E7/2026-03Keywords:
Dynamic resilience index, Food system resilience, Global shocks, Import dependence, VolatilityAbstract
This study examines the evolution of cereal import dependence and food system resilience in Jordan over the period 1961–2023 using FAO data. Import dependence is measured by the Import Dependence Ratio (IDR), while a Dynamic Resilience Index (DRI) is developed to integrate dependence levels with temporal volatility. The results reveal a structural shift from a moderately dependent and volatile system to one characterized by persistently high and seemingly stable import dependence since the late 1970s. However, this apparent stability masks latent vulnerability, as the DRI indicates declining resilience driven by the interaction between high dependence and volatility. The analysis further shows that major global shocks (2008, 2020, and 2022) exert a significant negative effect on resilience. Scenario analysis suggests convergence toward a structurally low-resilience equilibrium under current conditions. The findings highlight the need for policies targeting both dependence reduction and volatility management.
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